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Three Trees (603737): The amount of engineering work and the rising paint faucet for home improvement

Three Trees (603737): The amount of engineering work and the rising paint faucet for home improvement

Recommended logic: The company is a leading national coatings company. The company grasps the trend of real estate centralization, improves the inflection point and the tide of old reforms at the end of completion. Through capacity expansion, cost-effective products, and high-quality services, it is advancing rapidly in the field of engineering wall paint business., 2019H1 engineering wall paint growth rate is 65.

2%, driving the company to grow rapidly; at the retail end, the company’s business foundation is solid and steady, with distinctive environmental protection and healthy product features, continuous publicity and promotion, increasingly dense offline outlets, and intimate “live now” services,The retail side is expected to grow at a compound rate of 20% in the future, and its market share will steadily increase from the current 2%.

The coatings industry is still in a golden development period.

The scale of the architectural coatings market is more than 100 billion yuan. At present, the industry is at the inflection point of completion, the trend of housing enterprises centralization, the wave of old reforms, and the large-base stock houses have gradually entered the favorable environment of the repainting era. The entire industry continues to be in a golden development period.

1) Turning point at the end of completion: due to tight credit and difficult financing, the scissors gap between newly started and completed construction has continued to expand since 2016, and has continued for more than 3 years, but the law of completion following changes in new construction will not change.The monthly completion rate is 2.

8%, from negative to positive. It is expected that the inflection point will continue to improve in the fourth quarter of 2019, and it is expected to continue for 3 years.

2) The wave of old reforms: The old reforms and reforms have started since 3 years. There are nearly 160,000 old communities in the country with a construction area of about 4 billion square meters.

The projected external wall area is about 3 billion square meters, and the amount of paint used is about 120 inches, corresponding to the release of more than 10 billion market space.

3) Large-base stock houses have entered the era of renovation: In 2018, the number of domestic stock houses has exceeded 27 billion square meters, which is 13 times the newly started area and 30 times the completed area in that year. More 四川耍耍网 second-hand housing transactions are increasing, and the refurbishment of stock housesThe refurbishment market base will be in a rapid expansion phase for a long time.

4) Centralization of real estate: In 2018, the market share of TOP30 housing enterprises reached 45.

2%, the centralization of the real estate industry has also continued to promote the centralization of downstream industries.

Expansion of production + cost-effective products + optimization services, the company’s engineering coatings are surging.

The company seized the industry’s potential to continue its expansion, and its production capacity has been increased from 6 in 2013.

The growth rate increased to 73 in 2018.

5 nominal.

Supported by production capacity, the company focuses on R & D + product testing, good quality control, and a variety of high-performance engineering exterior wall product systems and high decoration and environmental protection products with high cost-effectiveness, and its acceptance in the engineering market has gradually increased. The preferred rate is 19%, only20% after Nippon.

At the same time, because the coating effect requires construction coordination, the company integrates products and construction integration. By analyzing demand-customizing cost-effective products-formulating standardized service processes-the needs of developers based on the region and level of service size scale, customer satisfaction is high.

Revenue for the first half of 2019 was 10.

4 trillion, a growth rate of 65.

2%, continued acceleration, driving the company’s overall size to grow rapidly, and for a longer period of time to better implement high-quality services and increase brand promotion, forming a virtuous circle of strong and strong.

The encrypted coverage of outlets + prominent product features + continuous advertising and publicity + high-quality “live now” services have steadily improved the retail market.

The company adopted the strategy of surrounding the city by the countryside and gradually penetrated into the first- and second-tier cities. Currently, there are more than 15,000 offline sales outlets. Except Beijing and Shanghai, the number of stores in each city is ahead of the number of Nippon stores.

At the same time, the company’s products highlight the characteristics of “green, healthy, environmentally friendly”, net taste, and formaldehyde.

And through continuous advertising and high-quality “live immediately” services to continue to strengthen consumer influence, home improvement wall paint business achieved a steady market share increase.

Earnings forecasts and investment advice.

It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers will grow at a compound growth rate of 46% in 2019-2021.


Considering the company’s increasing competitiveness and high growth rate, it can enjoy a certain estimated premium, giving the company 27 times PE in 2020, corresponding to a target price of 77.

5 yuan, the first coverage given a “buy” rating.

Hualan Biological (002007) 2019 performance preview comment: blood products slightly lower than expected rapid growth of vaccines

Hualan Biological (002007) 2019 performance preview comment: blood products slightly lower than expected rapid growth of vaccines

Event: On January 6, the company announced the 2019 performance forecast and expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers12.


USD 6.7 billion, an annual increase of 10% -20%.

  Guoyuan’s point of view: Blood products sector: industry supervision tends to be more rigorous, 2019H2 performance is slightly lower than expected blood products demand-side boom, 2019H1 overlapping inventory digestion impacts high plate growth.

Except that Jing Bing has not yet fully opened for sale, the remaining products have entered the low inventory stage.

The growth rate of pulp extraction in the industry is rapid, and the number of replenishment stations is reduced. It is expected that the growth rate of pulp extraction in 2019 will be <10%, and the trend may continue into 2020. At the same time, affected by emerging events in early 2019, the industry's supervision has become stricter, and the actual rate of improvement of the slurry rate has affected the supply level. According to the company's three quarterly report and annual performance forecast expansion, the blood products segment revenue was 27. 6 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years. 52%, slightly lower than market expectations of 15%. The company has been newly approved for Chongqing Liangping Pulp Extraction Station, and at the same time promoted the new process of human fibrinogen. It is expected that next year, it is expected to continue to maintain a performance increase of more than 10% in blood products. Blood products enter the expected job cycle of funding, or it is expected to increase the price of single products.   Vaccine sector: The awareness of influenza has improved, and the high business climate is still there. The preliminary calculation of the convergence of the subsequent pipeline is to estimate the revenue of the vaccine sector at 10. 5 ppm, an increase of 31% in one year, and net profit is expected to be 3. $ 800 million, an increase of 42% per year. According to our collation of the batch approval data, as of December 29, 2019, the company has issued a total of 836 batches of 4-valent influenza vaccine. 08, 000, 3 valent influenza vaccine expired and issued 457. A total of 270,000 ACYW135 meningitis polysaccharide vaccines have been issued. 400,000, is expected to confirm the income of more than 8.1 million four-valent influenza vaccine, three-valent influenza vaccine more than 3 million. Popular flu awareness has increased and demand for tetravalent flu vaccine is high. The company has two 15 million vaccine production lines. It is expected that the production schedule will be further adjusted according to market demand. It is expected that the 4-price production schedule next year is expected to exceed 12 million and the 3-valent flu vaccine is slightly replaced. At the same time, the company's Baibaipo combined vaccine and human rabies vaccine will also be approved for listing, and the vaccine pipeline will continue to increase.   Investment advice and profit forecast The demand for blood products is booming, the growth rate is stable for six months, the awareness of influenza vaccine is increasing, and the high growth of production is accompanied by the realization of production capacity. In view of the slight 厦门夜网 adjustment in the growth rate of the blood products sector, we have slightly lowered the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating income for 19-21 will be 38.



30 ppm, an increase of 18 years.

75% / 21.

08% / 17.

40%, net profit attributable to mother 13.



34 ppm, an 18-year increase.

64% / 21.

57% / 17.

67%, EPS trim is 0.

97 (-0.

10) / 1.18 (-0.

11) / 1.

39 (-0.

10) Yuan / share, corresponding to PE is 33/27/23, and the target price is reduced to 40.

0 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk warnings: less than expected pulp extraction, product safety risks, policy risks

China Merchants Highway (001965) Quarterly Comment: Stable Performance, Smart Transportation Holds Probability of Cancelling Provincial Stations

China Merchants Highway (001965) Quarterly Comment: Stable Performance, Smart Transportation Holds Probability of Cancelling Provincial Stations

The company disclosed the results of the three quarterly reports for 19 years, and its operating income increased by 24.

51% to 56.

20 trillion, an increase of 8 in a single quarter.

20% to 19.

32 trillion; net profit attributable to mother gradually increased by 9.

59% to 33.

21 trillion, a single quarter increase of 0.


The sharp decline in profit growth in Q3 was mainly due to the elimination of the base effect brought about by the merger and acquisition of highways last year, and the same quarter investment income fell by zero.

390,000 yuan, non-operating expenses in the single quarter increased by 0.

3.5 billion.

Single quarter revenue increased by 8.

20%, the performance of the road industry portfolio is stable. In April and July of 2018, the company consolidated the Yuqian, Shanghai-Chongqing and Pufu expressways. 19Q3 was the first quarter in which the consolidation effect was eliminated.

We disaggregated 19H1 to exclude new consolidated road products, and the income from existing road products increased by about 5%, referring to Q3 revenue8.

The 2% growth rate, and the revenue accounted for toll revenue accounted for more than 60%, it is estimated that the growth rate of toll revenue in 19Q3 remained stable.

Prospective layout of emerging businesses, and with the promotion of ETC transition, the capital expenditures of road enterprises toll gate reform, gantry installation and other capital expenditures will bring depreciation costs.

The company’s smart transportation segment seized the opportunity to cancel provincial stations, actively deployed the engineering reform business of highway tolls, and increased incremental income to hedge the depreciation costs of the company’s toll highway segment.

Investment income fell by 4 in the same quarter.

70%, well-controlled expenditures 19Q3 net investment income of the company was 7.

8.3 billion, a decrease of 0 a year.

3.9 billion, a decrease from the previous month.

8.7 billion, considering the new shareholding companies in Q2, it is expected that Q3 investment income is mainly a financial recognition disturbance, so the growth rate will pick up.

At the end of the 19Q3 quarter, the scale of long-term interest-bearing debt increased by 3.

7%, while the interest rate expense in the third quarter fell by 19%.

2%, mainly due to the use of low-interest-rate convertible debt to replace high-interest-rate banks.

Management expenses fell by 8 quarter-on-quarter.

0%, the three fees total decreased by 1 compared with the previous month.


The profit forecast and investment recommendations consider that the company’s road product quality is excellent, and the growth trend of emerging businesses is relatively optimistic. Without considering the extension landing, it is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers will be 43 in 2019-2021.

3, 47.

8, 52.

200 million, corresponding to PE of 11.

8, 10.


8 times.

In the long run, the company’s road product reserves are sufficient, the remaining operating life is extended, and the entire industry chain operation enables road products to make profits. According to the DCF calculation, the reasonable value is about 9.

58 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: The growth of highway traffic is lower than expected, the operating performance of reinvested projects is lower than expected, the expansion of transportation technology business is lower than expected, and the photovoltaic power generation business causes the electrical impact to exceed expectations.

WuXi PharmaTech (603259): Revenue side continues to accelerate various businesses to maintain rapid growth

WuXi PharmaTech (603259): Revenue side continues to accelerate various businesses to maintain rapid growth
Investment Highlights Recently, WuXi PharmaTech released its 2019 third quarter report, which has reported that the company has achieved sales revenue of 92.7.9 billion, an annual increase of 34.06%; net profit attributable to mother 17.6.5 billion, down 8 previously.46%; net profit of non-attributed mothers is 17.1.4 billion, an increase of 36 in ten years.88%; earnings per share 1.07 yuan. Profit forecast: As a domestic CRO leader, the company will take its place in the international market. Against the background of the rapid development of China’s CRO industry, the company takes full advantage of its internal leadership, the advantages of the entire industry chain, and better service quality and efficiency. Both the CRO business and the CMO / CDMO business revenue are expected to maintain steady and rapid growth.At the same time, the company actively invests in the deployment of advanced global enterprises, and while forming synergies with its own business, the investment income promotes the increase of the company’s performance. We expect the company to maintain a rapid growth of more than 30% on the revenue side in 2019; although the profit side is affected by many factors, it is expected that the growth rate of the adjusted non-IFRS net profit attributable to the mother will be flat or exceed the revenue growth.We raise our profit forecast and expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 1.30 yuan, 1.64 yuan, 2.05 yuan, on October 30, 2019, the corresponding PE is 武汉夜生活网 66 times, 52 times, and 42 times, respectively, maintaining the level of “prudent increase”. Risk Warning: New Orders Get Less Than Expected; Core Clients Maintain Risk; Exchange Rate Fluctuation Risk; Investment Income Fluctuation Risk

Wangfujing (600859): 2Q19 revenue rises month-on-month, speeds up new stores, and pressure on profits

Wangfujing (600859): 2Q19 revenue rises month-on-month, speeds up new stores, and pressure on profits

The company released its 2019 Interim Report on August 31.

In the first half of 2019, the company realized revenue of 134.

22 ppm, an increase of ten years.

69%; net profit attributable to mother 6.

99 ppm, a decrease of 7 per year.

48%; gross margin decreased by 0 in ten years.

2pct to 21.


Diluted grain income is 0.

9 yuan, return on net assets 6.

27%, net inflow of operating cash1.

4.9 billion.

Brief comments and investment recommendations.


1H19 revenue increased 杭州夜网论坛 by 1.

At 69%, the growth of Olay’s business has been significant, and its overall gross profit margin has declined slightly.

1H19 company revenue 134.

22 ppm, an increase of ten years.

69%, 1Q / 2Q each increased by 0.

21% / 3.

44%; Ole’s rapid business development led to the company’s revenue increase, the second quarter revenue increased by more than 30% in ten years;

8%, the passenger orders increased slightly, the growth rate, the passenger flow decreased slightly, the decline decreased quarter by quarter; the gross profit margin fell by 0.

2pct to 21.

04%, of which 1Q increased by 0.

02pct, 2Q drops to 0.

47 points.

Specifically, (A) division, the department store / shopping mall is still the company’s main format, 1H19 revenue fell 1.

67% to 104.

55ppm, gross profit margin rose by 0.

34 武汉夜网论坛 points to 17.

59%, revenue share decreased by 2.

66 points to 77.

9%; the Ole format has become an important driving force for the company’s growth, with revenue growth of 22.

8% to 21.

48 ppm, gross margin decreased by 0.

38pct to 10.

58%, revenue share increased 10 years.
75pct to 16%.
(B) By region, North China still generates the highest income, with an income of 42.

31 ppm, a decrease of 0 per year.

55%; Northeast China has the fastest income growth due to the impact of the new growth Spring Ole, with an annual increase of 74.

2% to 6.

55 ppm; Northwest revenue growth4.

79%, southwest, central, and southern China exceeded the decline by 2.



24%, little change in East China.

The gross profit margin in the southwest region was 18%, which was basically flat. The gross profit margin in the northeast and east China regions decreased significantly, increasing by 5 respectively.


51pct; the gross profit margin of Northwest China and Central China increased slightly; the gross profit margin of North China and South China declined slightly, but remained above 15%.

(C) In terms of categories, the growth of sports and cosmetics is higher. The growth of Olle Sports has increased by nearly 31%, and that of department store cosmetics has increased by more than 18.


In terms of different types of business, women’s clothing, makeup, jewelry, men’s clothing and sports products are the top five categories of goods sold in department stores, accounting for 66% of the total sales.


Among them, makeup, jewelry, and sports categories maintained rapid growth; sports, women’s clothing, men’s clothing, and luggage categories were the top 4 types of products sold by the Olay format, accounting for 85% of total sales. Except for the slight decline in luggage categories, other categories continued to grow.

The store expansion continued to advance, and the national network layout was actively operated.

① Opening: Nanchang Wangfujing Shopping Center opened on June 28, with a total construction area of 230,000 square meters and a leased area of 18.

40,000 square meters with a lease term of 20 years.

② Contract signing: The company is actively planning the northwestern region and plans to establish Xining Wangfujing Xinqian Shopping Center in Xining, Qinghai, with a total leased area of 8.

90,000 square meters with a lease term of 20 years. The company is expected to open in the second half of this year.

③ Preparation: Foshan Wangfujing Shopping Center project is still in the construction stage, and the company expects to complete and deliver in 2020.


1H19 expense ratio increased by 1.

25pct, effective tax rate increased by 3.

54 points.

1H19 expense ratio increased by 1.

25pct to 14%, mainly from the increase in the financial expense ratio; due to the decrease in interest income, the increase in index expenditure caused the financial expense ratio to increase by 1H

2pc, of which interest rate income as a percentage of income decreased by 0.

95pct, interest rate expenditure as a percentage of income increased by 0.

22pct; sales expense ratio decreased by 0.

11 points to 10.

46%, of which the utility rate and rental fee rate have each decreased by 0.


16pct; management expense rate increased by 0.

17 points to 3.

65%, of which wages and surcharge rates rose by 0.
35 points.
The effective income rate increases by 3 every year.

54 points to 27.

73%, 1Q / 2Q each increased by 3.


51 points.


Profits are falling year by year.

At 6%, net profit attributable to mothers decreased by 7.

5%, excluding recurring effects, and the estimated profit dropped by 8%.

1H19 profit fell 4 year-on-year.

6% to 9.

7.2 billion, of which 1Q / 2Q each fell 7.


05%, a significant improvement in the second quarter; net profit attributable to mothers decreased by 7 year-on-year.

5% to 70,000 yuan, of which 1Q / 2Q each decreased by 11.


76%; Excluding interest income from large certificates of deposit in 1Q18, the profit and loss of fair value changes in 1H19 Beichen Industrial, we calculated that profit in 1H19 decreased by 8%, and 1Q / 2Q each decreased by 5% / 10%.

Maintain judgment of the company.

The company has a total of 52 stores, covering seven national economic regions, 22 provinces, 32 cities, with a total construction area of 2.83 million square meters. It is a nationally distributed department store with a small number of shares. The governance structure is optimized.Innovate with the direction of Outlets, and develop in-depth joint ventures in commodity operations, self-operated and private brand development.

We believe that the company’s main business platform has solid performance, reasonable store order distribution, and healthy and stable financial conditions.

Update profit forecast.

Net profit is expected to be 11 in 2019-2021.

800 million, 12.

8 ppm, 14 ppm, -2 year to year.

2%, 9%, 9%, EPS 1 each.

51 yuan, 1.

65 yuan, 1.

8 yuan.

Considering that the company, as a national department store, has made progress and effects in the transformation of commodities, customer capacity building and industry innovation, as well as the ability and opportunity to promote industry integration, referring to the scale of peer companies, we give 2019 net profit.12-15 times PE, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 18.


7 yuan, given the “preliminary market” rating.

Risk reminders: the incubation period of new stores is prolonged; the risk of competition pressure; the progress and effect of transformation are lower than expected.

Hengshun Vinegar Industry (600305): Steady channel expansion of main seasoning category

Hengshun Vinegar Industry (600305): Steady channel expansion of main seasoning category

Hengshun Q3 condiment revenue performance increased by 4 respectively.

2% / 14.

2%, of which the main business (vinegar and cooking wine) increased by 9%, a slight improvement from the previous quarter, cooking wine power is obvious, and overseas markets such as South China expand smoothly.

Against the background of the overall decline in the consumption environment, Hengshun has expanded and expanded into multiple categories, expanded channels, and actively participated in competition in the main sales area and the growth of main categories, and the main industry revenue and profit growth have remained stable.

We maintain our EPS forecast for 19-20 years to zero.

45, 0.

5, and “Carefully Recommended-A” rating.

Hengshun single Q3 increased by 4.

2% / 14.

2%, of which the main seasoning category income increased 9%, remained stable.

Hengshun released the third quarter report, the first three quarters of revenue13.

300 million, +7.

62%, net profit attributable to mother 2.

500 million, +14.

81%, net of non-attributed net profit1.

8.3 billion, an increase of 15 in ten years.


Among them, the single third quarter operating income4.

500 million, an annual increase of 4.

24% (the parent company’s main condiment single Q3 revenue increased by 10.


Net profit attributable to mother 1.

0.8 billion, an increase of 14 in ten years.

twenty one%.

Receipts in the third and third quarters increased by 12.

18%, the annual advance of accounts received increased by about 10 million.

The main business grew steadily, the vinegar category was still weak, and cooking wine was working hard.

The growth of condiments in Q3 was improved relative to Q2. The combined growth rate of vinegar and cooking wine was 9%, of which the growth rate of vinegar was 4%, which was 2 compared to Q2.

The 6% growth has improved month-on-month, but remains weak.

Cooking wine Q3 increased by 39%, with obvious strength, which drove the main business as a whole to a reasonable growth rate of 9%.

Henghua Color Printing is no longer beyond the scope of consolidation, dragging down consolidated statement revenue growth.

East China continued, and South China accelerated.

The growth rate of Q1-3 in East China was 13% / 7% / 4% respectively. Through the weakening consumption environment, the main sales area has improved. At the same time, we have observed a net decrease in dealerships in East China in Q2.Local adjustments will also cause short-term growth.

The growth rates of Q1-Q3 in South China were 21% / 9% / 26%, respectively, and channel expansion accelerated.

The gross profit rate and expense ratio both rose, and the non-performance results remained flexible.

Q3’s gross profit margin was 44.

4%, an increase of 3 per year.

The increase of 7% is expected to be related to the reduction of the gross profit margin restructuring assets, and the increase in the scale effect after the cooking wine is released, and the high-end vinegar category.Sales expense ratio increased by 1.

7% to 16.

3%, the management expense ratio increased by 1.

2% to 8.


The company’s disposal of Zhongshan Xilu’s assets brought 41.96 million in asset disposal income, which brought a certain increase in performance.

The first three quarters of non-performing performance maintained a growth of 15%, which was in line with many early plans.

Investment suggestion: The main business should remain stable, slightly better than the previous month, and maintain the level of “prudent recommendation-A”.

Hengshun’s Q3 condiment revenue growth rate has improved slightly from the previous quarter, cooking wine has made significant efforts, and overseas markets such as South China have expanded smoothly.

Against the background of the overall decline in the 杭州桑拿网 consumption environment, Hengshun has expanded and expanded into multiple categories, expanded channels, and actively participated in competition in the main sales area and the growth of main categories, and the main industry revenue and profit growth have remained stable.

We maintain our EPS forecast for 19-20 years to zero.

45, 0.

5, and “Carefully Recommended-A” rating.

Risk reminder: acquisition integration management risk, main business demand is less than expected

Jiuguijiu (000799) Coverage Report for the First Time-Jumping to Torture

Jiuguijiu (000799) Coverage 杭州夜网论坛 Report for the First Time-Jumping to Torture
This report reads: The company is the leading brand of yuluo-flavor liquor, and after the takeover of COFCO, the refined management has been continuously improved.The establishment of a high-end wine internal reference sales company promotes the continuous optimization of the company’s product structure and significantly enhances performance flexibility. Key points of investment: Investment advice: The leading brand of Luyu Fragrance Liquor is stable and the brand has a deep accumulation.After the entry of COFCO, the company’s management has improved comprehensively, and the expense rate has been steadily decreased.The establishment of the internal reference wine sales company will accelerate the introduction of internal reference wines to the market, thereby significantly enhancing performance flexibility.The company’s EPS is expected to be 0 in 2018-2020.69/1.05/1.53 yuan, target price of 27 yuan, the first time to give “overweight” rating. COFCO took over, internal control management improved, and the company’s performance improved steadily.Since COFCO Group took control of the company, the company’s equity structure has stabilized, and internal control management has improved comprehensively.The company’s management efficiency has improved significantly, and the management expense rate has continued to decrease. It has replaced 10% in the third quarter of 2018.According to the performance report, the company’s revenue in 2018 increased by 35 per year.13%, net profit attributable to mother increased by 27.94%, good growth momentum is expected to continue. Established the internal reference wine sales company, independent operation to accelerate the sales of large single-item internal reference wine.On December 30, 2018, powerful merchants jointly funded the establishment of an internal reference wine sales company, sounding the clarion call that internal reference wine impacted the first camp of national high-end liquor.Under the favorable conditions of improved market demand structure, repeated price hikes by leading companies, and tight balance between supply and demand in the high-end market, the company’s product structure has continued to optimize. Internal reference wine revenue accounts for nearly 20% and the H1 revenue in 2018 exceeded 41%.7%, the proportion of high-end and high-end product revenues totaled 86.3%.The establishment of the internal reference wine sales company will help the company integrate large business resources, enhance channel capabilities, expand sales markets, and further increase the proportion of high-margin products to achieve rapid growth in revenue and profits. In contrast to the Luquan model, the company takes its essence and is expected to replicate the rapid growth of Luzhou Laojiao.-The Quan model has helped the old warehouse in Luzhou achieve revenue of 38% in 2010-2012 at a sales expense ratio of less than 6%.3% composite strength.The establishment of the internal reference wine sales company has successfully achieved the inheritance of the Quanquan model. By introducing a vendor value integration model, it fully mobilized the resources of dealers and sales teams to help the company accelerate the expansion of the high-end wine market and enhance its performance flexibility. Risk Warning: Sales within the province, expansion outside the province is less than expected, and the industry environment is deteriorating.

Xinhua Insurance (601336): Profitability has improved business development to be recovered

Xinhua Insurance (601336): Profitability has improved business development to be recovered

On the evening of October 30, 2019, Xinhua Insurance announced its third-quarter results for 2019, with net profit attributable to its mother of RMB 13 billion, an increase of 68 during the same period.

8%, the total investment yield is 4.

7%, down by 0 every year.


Investment points: Tax cuts will boost the growth rate of net profit, and investment will help multiply the comprehensive income: the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in the first three quarters was 13 billion, an increase of 68.

8% of plasma from 25.

4 billion outstanding expectations-6.

8 billion, first and foremost in the first three quarters of 2018 and 2019.

In addition, due to the floating profit of AFS assets brought by the improvement of the stock market, other comprehensive income was -31.

700 million outstanding turned to 36.

700 million, so the comprehensive return to motherhood increased by 268% per year to 16.7 billion.

Changes in actuarial assumptions in the first three quarters reduced profit before taxes.

800 million, assuming the cause of the adjustment is worthy of attention.

The futures delivery business still needs to be improved, and long-term NBV growth continues to be under pressure: new single-term delivery in the first three quarters was 16 billion, a decrease of 6 in the same period.

9% (+1 in the first half of the year.

1%), of which new orders of ten years or more are due 88.

900 million, down 15 every year.

4%, the decline has narrowed, and the business side has not yet seen a significant recovery. Instead, it has re-launched a new promotion strategy and made subsequent improvements.

Due to the sluggish business growth, it is expected that the growth rate of new business value in the first three quarters is also not satisfactory. At the same time, it is difficult to significantly improve the growth rate of NBV because it is difficult to see high growth in the fourth quarter due to preparations.

Investment assets grew rapidly, and the total investment yield was slightly lower than expected: benefiting from the steady growth of premiums and a significant drop in the surrender rate (from 4).

5% interest rate 1.

4%), the company’s investment assets increased significantly compared to the beginning of the year12.

2% to 785 billion, with an annualized return on investment of 4%.

7%, down by 0 every year.

1pct, the floating profit of AFS assets has not yet been reflected 都市夜网 in the income statement, resulting in a slightly higher than expected return on total investment. If the full-caliber return on investment is considered, it will significantly increase.

Profit forecast and investment recommendations: From the perspective of the three quarterly reports, the company’s merger of NBV is still under pressure, and subsequent follow-up needs to focus on the actions of the new session. However, the long-term profitability of the transition company has significantly improved after a few years.

Under the assumption of 5% return on investment, the EPS for 2019-2021 is forecast to be 4.



57 yuan, corresponding to 10 for PE.



86 times, EVPS is 65.



43 yuan, corresponding to PEV of 0.


67/0.59 times, comprehensively consider long-term profitability and current expectations, and maintain a “Buy” rating.

Risk factors: Sales of new orders are less than expected, overall production capacity continues to decrease, equity market declines

“Electric Power Super Express” has nearly 100 billion yuan in gift industry chain

“Electric Power Super Express” has nearly 100 billion yuan in gift industry chain

For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

  Original title: “Electric Power Super Express”: Nearly 100 billion yuan gift package industry chain companies have reinstated labor tide Liu Li ○ Editor Quan Zeyuan stabilized the economy and stabilized employment, the State Grid quickly knocked out nearly 100 billion yuan in project investment opportunities, and the UHV industryDoes the chain company smell the wind?

How is the return to work?

The Shanghai Stock Exchange quickly interviewed the latest situation of many listed companies.

  ”We are returning to work in an orderly manner. We are confident of overcoming difficulties and confident of future development prospects.

“Yu Tao, chairman of Changlan Technology, said.

  Nearly 100 billion yuan of investment project construction resumed Recently, the State Grid announced twelve progresses in response to the impact of the epidemic to resume construction and promote the resumption of production and restart production of enterprises. Three of them involved UHV projects known as “electricity super express”.The investment is nearly 100 billion yuan.

Since its introduction, the upstream and downstream equipment manufacturers have set off a wave of resumption of work and production in recent days.

  It is understood that in these twelve steps, the construction of Qinghai-Henan, Yazhong-Jiangxi ± 800 kV UHVDC and other major projects with a total construction scale of 71.3 billion yuan has been completely resumed, and new construction in northern Shaanxi-Wuhan has also startedProjects with a total investment of 26.5 billion, including the KV UHV DC project.

The total investment mentioned above is 97.8 billion yuan.

  Zheng Dandan, chief analyst of Dongxing Securities’ power equipment and new energy industry, believes that UHV projects can also improve power transmission efficiency, and help to promote the consumption of clean energy such as wind and solar power, and optimize the allocation of power resources across the country.

Of the twelve transitions, three are closely related to UHV, reflecting the current core leaders of the State Grid’s understanding of UHV and other key national projects.

  On the night when the twelve measures were announced, State Grid Materials Corporation announced the release of three projects including the first transformer substation equipment in 2020, Qinghai-Henan UHV project online monitoring equipment, and the bidding and procurement of spare parts for UHV converter stations.The procurement scale is about US $ 3.3 billion, and actual actions are taken to help large equipment suppliers resume work and resume production.

  The feast of orders helps enterprises to resume work and resume production of UHV equipment, which can be divided into key equipment and auxiliary equipment.

Among them, converter valves, converter transformers, combined appliances, etc. are key equipment, with a high cost share, and at the same time, the technical door cloud is also high.

Each main equipment is generally provided by 3 to 5 equipment manufacturers, and the market share is relatively stable.

Listed companies such as Guodian Nari, Xu Ji Electric, and China West Power are leading enterprises.

  Relevant person in charge of GD Nanrui said that the company implements an order sales model, and the current order is interrupted, including Qinghai-Henan ± 800 kV UHV DC project, Yazhong-Jiangxi ± 800 kV UHV DC project, Alibaba Network and a large number of projectsRelated equipment supply items for key projects.

Since the beginning of this year, the company’s product market share has been stable, and the company’s production and operation conditions are good.

  ”The latest progress of the State Grid will actively drive the resumption of production and production in the upstream and downstream industries of the power grid, which will benefit the development of the UHV industry.

As a leading company in the electrical equipment industry, we have a complete electrical equipment industry system and will benefit significantly from future UHV and other construction investments.

“The person in charge believes.

  On February 17, all employees of Xu Ji Electric resumed work.

Xu Ji Electric has mastered the core technology of DC transmission converter valves with a voltage level of ± 1100 kV and below, and has formed a complete set of DC transmission equipment that integrates current conversion, control and protection and DC field.

  The Shanghai Securities News learned from relevant channels that at present, Xu Ji Electric has ample orders in hand.

In February 2019, Qinghai-Henan ± 800 kV and Northern Shaanxi-Hubei ± 800 kV two UHV DC lines were tendered, and the company won the bid for the converter valve 7.

3.4 billion, DC control and protection system1.

9.3 billion yuan, winning bid shares of 24% and 49% respectively.

Including Kunliulong, Zhangbei and Lahore, the company has nearly 4 billion UHV orders on hand.

Judging from the pace of construction of the tendered lines, the company’s DC transmission system business is expected to contribute significantly in 2020.

  ”Converter valves and DC control and protection equipment have higher profits, with gross margins of 30% and 60%, respectively. Xu Ji Electric will directly benefit from the full advancement of the UHV project and is expected to be reflected in the company’s annual reports in 2020 and 2021.
“Related sources said.

  Changgao Group in Hunan is also an outstanding leader in the power equipment industry chain.

Relevant person in charge of Changgao Group told Shanghai Securities News that the company had resumed work on February 13th, and the rate of return to work was close to 90%.

  It is understood that in 2019, Changgao Group’s new orders for transmission and transformation equipment reached a record high of 17.

400 million U.S. dollars, which 杭州桑拿网 has made up for the 2020 performance growth.

At present, the company’s reserve contract is nearly 2 billion U.S. dollars, and its advantages in the high-voltage isolating switch market have gradually been further consolidated; the combined electrical product orders have achieved explosive growth, becoming another company’s flagship product.

The company participated in the construction of the state-of-the-art smart substation Hengyang Shizishan project, which created favorable conditions for continued participation in the smart substation reconstruction.  Changgao Group said that the company currently participates in the supply of equipment for key national projects such as the UHV Zhangbei flexible HVDC project, Qinghai-Henan, Yazhong-Jiangxi, Yan’an-Wuhan ± 800 kV UHV.

The company will seize the benefits of the start of key projects and the transformation of existing substations, make full use of the company’s technological precipitation in products such as disconnectors, combined electrical appliances, accelerate product research and development, improve service standards, and further expand its market share.

  The comprehensive resumption of UHV construction and the advancement of new projects have also accelerated the pace of resumption of production of UHV auxiliary equipment manufacturers such as cables.

  ”We are returning to work in batches. At present, more than 400 people have returned to work. The return workers are mainly responsible for meeting the demand for orders.

The relevant person in charge of long cable technology said that the cable is a place in the UHV industrial chain. After the UHV project enters the eastern power-using cities, the power transmission lines of different voltage levels will be used to deliver power to the power-using department, which will increaseThe company’s market share.

The company’s new orders in 2019 are saturated, laying a minimum foundation for this year’s performance growth.

  The on-load tap-changer produced by Huaming Equipment is the key equipment in the transformer, with a market share of about 90%.

“As long as we produce transformers, we are basically our customers.

A person in charge of Huaming Equipment told Shanghai Securities News that the triggering of the twelve State Grid Articles will greatly benefit the UHV industry chain.

At present, the company’s orders are in a saturated state, and there are plans to continue to expand production capacity.

  What’s even more gratifying is that the State Grid also stated that the next step will further review the resumption arrangements at the end of February and mid-March, and refine the epidemic prevention and control plans, emergency plans and construction plans one by one to ensure that the key projects are scientifically and comprehensively resumed construction.

China Merchants Shekou (001979): Sales growth is eye-catching

China Merchants Shekou (001979): Sales growth is eye-catching

The event company achieved sales of 2,204 in 2019.

70,000 yuan, an increase of 29 in ten years.

3%, sales area is 1169.

40,000 square meters, an 武汉夜网论坛 increase of 41 in ten years.


The core point of view is that the old-fashioned faucets are shining, and the sales volume has increased to a new level.

The company achieved sales of 234 in a single month in December.

30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 7.

6%, sales area 156.

100,000 square meters, an increase of 34 in ten years.


The cumulative sales amount in December was 2,204.

70,000 yuan, an increase of 29 in ten years.

3%, sales area is 1169.

40,000 square meters, an increase of 41 in ten years.


The company’s sales scale has successfully exceeded 200 billion, ranking 12th in the sales list of Kerer, and the growth rate of nearly 30% is also in the industry-leading level.

The expansion of sales scale mainly comes from the increase in sales area, and the company’s average sales price is 1.

89 square meters per square meter, a decrease of 8 per year.


This also reflects the company’s strategy of gradually strengthening sales in second- and third-tier cities.

The high growth in sales scale also provides a foundation for the release of future performance.

Land investment tends to be cautious, the average land price has fallen sharply, and the probability of future profitability improvement is high.

In 2019, the company obtained 78 projects with a land acquisition amount of 8.69 million yuan and an investment intensity (land acquisition amount / sales amount) of 39.

4%, a decrease of 32 from 2018.

7 units.

The company’s land investment has changed from active to prudent, and the adjustment of investment strategy has been adapted to the industry environment in which long-term financing has been tightened.

From the perspective of investment layout, 80% of first- and second-tier cities account for 80% of land investment.

7%, an increase of 11 from 2018.

Five single, can grind the company’s fixed return to the guidance of first-tier and second-tier cities.

The initial average land acquisition price is 5705 yuan / square meter, which decreases by 40 each 北京夜网 year.


The sharp decline in the average land price provides extra profit margin for future sales and will improve the company’s profit margin after entering the settlement period.

Financial forecasts and investment recommendations maintain a BUY rating with a target price of 28.

32 yuan.

We forecast the company’s EPS for 2019-2021.


We maintain the company’s PE multiple of 12X in 2019, corresponding to a target price of 28.

32 yuan.

Risks suggest that sales in the real estate market have significantly exceeded expectations.

Interest rates rose faster than expected.