Qiaqia Food (002557): Shouzheng is surprisingly driven internally and externally into the fast track of growth
Investment advice: Qiaqiu Food is a leading brand in the peanut and nut roasting industry. It is the largest producer of edible sunflower seeds / melon seeds 杭州桑拿网 in developing countries. It has also become a market-leading daily nut brand.
The company restructured through BU. The internal PK and employee stock ownership plan stimulated internal vitality. We are optimistic about the continuous optimization of the company’s management system, which will help strengthen the company’s core competitiveness. We believe that future category expansion, product upgrades, and channel sinking will drive long-term performance.Steady growth.
Reasons The consumption of sunflower seeds / sunflower seeds has a clear pattern, and we are in a position to be the only one.
According to our calculations, the size of Chinese sunflower seeds terminals in 2019 is about 19 billion U.S. dollars, of which the size of packaging products terminals is about 9.7 billion U.S. dollars. The industry is basically stable, and the average price is expected to gradually increase driven by consumption upgrades.
We estimate that the compound growth rate of the packaged melon seeds market in 2019-2023 is about a number.
The packaging melon seed industry has a stable and clear pattern. In 2019, Qiaqia will account for about 40% of the packaged products. We will open up the gap with Jinge and Zhenglin. We expect that Qiaqia will continue to achieve brand influence, product innovation, and national competitive advantages such as channel layout.Realize growth.
The 100 billion nut track is wide, and mixed nuts are in a period of high growth.
We estimate the annual nut market to be 100 billion yuan. Euromonitor estimates that packaging nuts will be about 31.5 billion in 2019, with a compound growth rate of about 8% in the next 5 years.
Among them, mixed nuts are mainly based on scientific theory, nutrition matching concepts, and the market is rapidly expanding tolerances. We estimate that the size of mixed nut terminals in 2019 will be about US $ 12 billion, with a 50% increase each time, and it is expected to reach 29.5 billion euros in 2023 (CAGR is about 25%).).
At present, small-package daily nuts are big products in the industry, and there are many competitions in the market. The products are more homogeneous, and the competition improves the online and offline channels.
Major brands have begun to focus on differentiated development, such as Qiaqia’s main focus on “mastering key fresh-keeping technologies” and direct global raw material harvesting.
Negotiate comprehensive category extension capabilities, and internal and external repairs will help performance enter the fast track of growth.
The company has successfully entered the nut track through the daily large nut single product, reflecting the category extension ability.
From this cash cow business, product upgrades and the introduction of blue bags will help accelerate overall growth and increase penetration of vulnerable markets.
We expect that the company’s revenue will continue to grow rapidly under the heavy volume of dual-type single products, product structure upgrades, and improved production efficiency will all contribute to the steady increase in gross profit margin.
We expect that the profit side will achieve steady growth, the 重庆耍耍网 promotion of new product promotion costs will not decrease, and the expense rate is expected to increase slightly, but it is still within a reasonable range.
Earnings forecasts and projections maintain 2019/2020 earnings forecasts and EPS forecasts for 2021.
The current price corresponds to 25/22 times P / E in 2020/2021, and the target price is maintained at RMB 41.
3 yuan, corresponding to 32/28 times P / E in 2020/2021, the current price has 28% upside.
Risks Fluctuations in raw material costs, changes in demand for categories, food safety risks, and increased competition in the industry.