Maanshan Iron & Steel (600808): Multiple factors lead to a substantial increase in the fourth quarter profit

Maanshan Iron & Steel (600808): Multiple factors lead to a substantial increase in the fourth quarter profit
Performance summary: The company issued the 2018 results announcement, reporting that the combined company realized operating income of 819.$ 5.2 billion, an annual increase of 11.91%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies 59.43 ppm, an increase of 43 in ten years.94%; corresponding EPS is 0.77 yuan, EPS for the four quarters are 苏州夜网论坛 0.18 yuan, 0.26 yuan, 0.28 yuan and 0.05 yuan; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 41 in the same period last year.29 trillion, equivalent to EPS.54 yuan.In addition, the company has a minimum interim cash dividend of zero.05 yuan (including tax), it is planned to distribute cash dividends of cash at the end of 2018.31 yuan (including tax), gradually expanded to 0 cash dividends. 36 yuan (including tax); operating data: the company’s 2018 pig iron 1800 lead, crude steel 1964 lead, steel 1870 replaced, the service is basically the same.In 2018, the steel output was used to calculate 4,075 yuan per ton of steel, the cost per ton of steel was 3504 yuan, and the gross profit per ton of steel was 570 yuan, which increased by 346 yuan, 334 yuan, and 11 yuan respectively.In terms of specific varieties, 南京夜网 the gross profit per ton of long steel products was 638 yuan, an increase of 14 per year.96%, consistent with the industry’s growth rate, the gross profit per ton of steel sheet is 464 yuan, which is replaced by 14 each time.41%, mainly due to the company’s first-level blast furnace overhaul in the fourth quarter, with a small amount of hot metal and priority to supply long products. In the fourth quarter, the output of slabs was only 178 tons, which was offset by 26% from the previous quarter.The company’s electrical steel products’ profit performance was generally affected by the decrease in exports from downstream customers. Financial analysis: In 2018, the company’s total operating income increased by 11.91%, the main business income increased for ten years.04%, of which the income of the iron and steel industry increases by 68 each year.3.5 billion, an increase of 9.85%, non-steel revenues increase by 18 per year.6.2 billion, a substantial increase of 65.23%, the increase is mainly due to the scrap steel sales in 2018, and the non-steel portion contributed 12 gross profit.8.8 billion; the company’s consolidated gross profit margin for 2018 was 14.83%, a decrease of 0 every year.47%, of which long gross margin rose more than 0.54%, the gross profit margin of plates and axles increased at least 2 respectively.89% and 10.32%; 5% during the period, 0 in ten years.52%, of which R & D expenses have increased significantly by 214 temporarily.18%, mainly due to the company’s further expansion of product development categories and accelerated product upgrades in 2018. The three expenses per ton of steel rose by more than 43 yuan; the net profit margin reached 8.61%, up 1 every year.69%; Asset-liability ratio 58 at the end of 2018.38%, a decline of 3 per year.89 average; budget, investment income continued to increase 61 over the previous year.13%, profit and loss from changes in fair value decreased by 200 compared with the previous year.67%, plasma cost increased by 60 compared with the previous year.29%, mainly due to the increase in the profitability of some subsidiaries and the company’s return of some deferred and delayed assets; Q4 QoQ change: Q3 2018 is attributable to the parent net profit to replace 83 QoQ.29%, exceeding the industry average, mainly due to the following reasons: First, the continuous decline in steel prices in November prevented the industry’s profits from generally starting to fall. According to our calculations, the gross profit of hot-rolled steel, cold-rolled steel and rebar ton steel decreased by 52.54%, 82.87% and 19.53%, the company’s product structure in half of the long plate is affected by the price drop; Second, the company has a blast furnace began overhaul on October 10, 2018, until February 24 this year, affected by the company’s fourth quarterThe output of steel was 429, which was the highest and the lowest value, and was the lowest 12 in the third quarter.98%, a decrease of 10.75%, the company shut down two blast furnaces and two converters throughout the year, the total withdrawal of ironmaking capacity of 100 tons, steelmaking capacity of 128 tons, the volume reduction is basically the same as last year; the third is based on the careful judgment of the market outlook, the company in the fourth quarterAccrued asset impairment losses 6.9.7 billion, all of which are losses from falling inventory prices; profit return will be the norm: After three years of bull market in the steel industry, the demand side is still committed to maintaining stability in 2019.Although the real estate sales end faces a high base in 2018, the interest rate is lowUnder the circumstances, the decline in real estate sales in 2019 is expected to be controlled within a number. Due to low inventory, real estate investment will still maintain a growth of more than 5%.At the same time, the direction of infrastructure development is determined, and the overall domestic demand stability will exceed market expectations.However, steel gradually withdraws in accordance with the general direction of supply-side environmental protection and production restriction. The overall profitability of the industry may be earlier. It has moved down in 2018. However, the current cycle is uncertain. It seems that it will provide expansion in 2010. The expansion of the balance sheet of the ferrous metal industryLimited, and most of them focus on capacity replacement, environmental protection and technological transformation.Therefore, the probability of the decline of the profit center to 2015 is not high, and it is more a process of returning from ultra-high profit to normal profit. Investment suggestion: As a large iron and steel manufacturer in East China, the company has formed three core products: sheet, long products, and axles.The profitability of the company follows the fundamental changes in the industry and is completed through the overhaul of the blast furnace. The subsequent output will be released normally.We estimate that the company EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.52 yuan, 0.64 yuan and 0. 70 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” rating; risk warning: high macroeconomic growth leads to pressure on demand; supply-side pressure continues to increase.