Hualan Biological (002007) 2019 performance preview comment: blood products slightly lower than expected rapid growth of vaccines

Hualan Biological (002007) 2019 performance preview comment: blood products slightly lower than expected rapid growth of vaccines

Event: On January 6, the company announced the 2019 performance forecast and expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers12.

53-13.

USD 6.7 billion, an annual increase of 10% -20%.

  Guoyuan’s point of view: Blood products sector: industry supervision tends to be more rigorous, 2019H2 performance is slightly lower than expected blood products demand-side boom, 2019H1 overlapping inventory digestion impacts high plate growth.

Except that Jing Bing has not yet fully opened for sale, the remaining products have entered the low inventory stage.

The growth rate of pulp extraction in the industry is rapid, and the number of replenishment stations is reduced. It is expected that the growth rate of pulp extraction in 2019 will be <10%, and the trend may continue into 2020. At the same time, affected by emerging events in early 2019, the industry's supervision has become stricter, and the actual rate of improvement of the slurry rate has affected the supply level. According to the company's three quarterly report and annual performance forecast expansion, the blood products segment revenue was 27. 6 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years. 52%, slightly lower than market expectations of 15%. The company has been newly approved for Chongqing Liangping Pulp Extraction Station, and at the same time promoted the new process of human fibrinogen. It is expected that next year, it is expected to continue to maintain a performance increase of more than 10% in blood products. Blood products enter the expected job cycle of funding, or it is expected to increase the price of single products.   Vaccine sector: The awareness of influenza has improved, and the high business climate is still there. The preliminary calculation of the convergence of the subsequent pipeline is to estimate the revenue of the vaccine sector at 10. 5 ppm, an increase of 31% in one year, and net profit is expected to be 3. $ 800 million, an increase of 42% per year. According to our collation of the batch approval data, as of December 29, 2019, the company has issued a total of 836 batches of 4-valent influenza vaccine. 08, 000, 3 valent influenza vaccine expired and issued 457. A total of 270,000 ACYW135 meningitis polysaccharide vaccines have been issued. 400,000, is expected to confirm the income of more than 8.1 million four-valent influenza vaccine, three-valent influenza vaccine more than 3 million. Popular flu awareness has increased and demand for tetravalent flu vaccine is high. The company has two 15 million vaccine production lines. It is expected that the production schedule will be further adjusted according to market demand. It is expected that the 4-price production schedule next year is expected to exceed 12 million and the 3-valent flu vaccine is slightly replaced. At the same time, the company's Baibaipo combined vaccine and human rabies vaccine will also be approved for listing, and the vaccine pipeline will continue to increase.   Investment advice and profit forecast The demand for blood products is booming, the growth rate is stable for six months, the awareness of influenza vaccine is increasing, and the high growth of production is accompanied by the realization of production capacity. In view of the slight 厦门夜网 adjustment in the growth rate of the blood products sector, we have slightly lowered the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating income for 19-21 will be 38.

20/46.

25/54.

30 ppm, an increase of 18 years.

75% / 21.

08% / 17.

40%, net profit attributable to mother 13.

52/16.

43/19.

34 ppm, an 18-year increase.

64% / 21.

57% / 17.

67%, EPS trim is 0.

97 (-0.

10) / 1.18 (-0.

11) / 1.

39 (-0.

10) Yuan / share, corresponding to PE is 33/27/23, and the target price is reduced to 40.

0 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk warnings: less than expected pulp extraction, product safety risks, policy risks